Lexin Cai (pronounced Lex-in KAI)
Postdoctoral Scholar, California Center for Population Research
University of California, Los Angeles
I am a postdoctoral scholar at the California Center for Population Research at UCLA. My recent work uses large-scale administrative data to examine the effects of safety net programs in the United States. I received my PhD in Economics from Cornell University in 2026. Prior to my PhD, I worked for five years at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington, DC–based research organization focused on policies affecting low-income families.
Working Papers
From Means-Tested to Universal: Short- and Long-Run Effects of Free School Meals
I examine the impact of switching from means-tested to universal provision of free school meals. Using linked administrative data from Texas, I exploit the staggered rollout of the Community Eligibility Provision (CEP), which allows high-poverty schools to provide free breakfast and lunch to all students without requiring individual applications or income-based eligibility. CEP increases schoolwide average daily meal participation by 6.2 percentage points (10 percent), equivalent to 20 additional meals per student per year. Participation rises both among previously eligible students, consistent with reduced stigma and application burden, and among newly eligible students, whose increase is about twice as large. The marginal participants induced by CEP are more economically advantaged than students who participate under means testing, suggesting worse targeting on need. I find no statistically significant effects on academic, behavioral, or economic outcomes, either overall or by student income, in the short or long run. Specifically, the 95 percent confidence intervals rule out increases larger than 0.02 standard deviations in grades 3–8 test scores and 5 percent in high school graduation relative to the baseline mean. Applying the marginal value of public funds framework, I find that the costs of CEP exceed its benefits.
Screening Out the Needy: The Effects of SNAP Work Requirements
We examine the effectiveness of work requirements as a screening device in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). Work requirements for “able-bodied adults without dependents” were suspended after the Great Recession and gradually reinstated across counties and states in the 2010s. Using linked administrative SNAP and employment data from five states and a triple-differences design, we find that work requirements reduce SNAP participation by 7 percent without increasing labor supply and disproportionately screen out low-income individuals. We develop a welfare framework to interpret these results and find that the social costs of work requirements exceed budget savings.
When Free Lunch Is No Longer a Proxy for Student Poverty: The Community Eligibility Provision and State K-12 Funding
I investigate how universal free school meals affect the measurement of student poverty and state K-12 funding. About half of U.S. public schools participate in the Community Eligibility Provision (CEP), which provides free meals to all students and eliminates household applications. This could distort free or reduced-price lunch (FRPL) data that many states use to allocate additional aid to low-income students. Using administrative data from 31 states, I find that reported FRPL shares diverge from child poverty in opposite directions depending on how states count students in CEP schools. Relative to poverty, FRPL shares fall by 5 log points in states reporting actual counts and rise by 10 log points in states counting all students in CEP schools. Despite these differences in reported FRPL, I find little evidence of funding loss. In the 15 states that allocate poverty funding based on FRPL, I can rule out annual losses in state formula aid exceeding $105 per student.
Policy Writing
- The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Includes Earnings Incentives
- House Farm Bill Would Increase Food Insecurity and Hardship
- President’s Budget Would Cut Food Assistance for Millions and Radically Restructure SNAP
- Administration’s 2018 Budget Would Severely Weaken and Cut the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
- Community Eligibility Adoption Rises for the 2015–2016 School Year, Increasing Access to School Meals
Teaching
- Economics of the Public Sector (PAM 2040), Fall 2021 · Brooks School Outstanding TA Award
Evaluations - Behavioral Economics and Public Policy (PAM 3130), Spring 2022
Evaluations